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Stable Growth for Real Estate Expected for 2015 through 2017
Dated: August 1 2015
- Single family housing sector has had positive growth for the third year straight in 2014 and starts are projected to increase from 647,400 units last year to 700,000 in 2015; 815,000 next year, up to 900,000 units in 2017. Though still below the 20-year average.
- Home prices increased by 5.4% in 2014 and are expected to be at 5.0% in 2015, and 4.0% in 2016-2017.
- Commercial property transactions are expected to increase for another two years and level off at a strong $500 billion in 2017.
- Demand for real estate, especially for office and apartments will remain strong. Apartments will show consistent rental rate growth above the 20-year average of 2.6%. This year, rent is expected to rise by 3.5%, 3.0% in 2016, and 2.7% in 2017.
- Decline in unemployment rate at 5.3% by the end of 2015, 5.0% for 2016, and 5% for 2017. Net job growth is expected to be 2.9 million per year compared to a long term average of 1.2 million.
- Increasing treasury rates will also increase borrowing costs for real estate investors. However, the respondents do not anticipate it to considerably affect real estate capitalization rates for investments.
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