A Midyear Analysis of Our Northern VA Market

Dated: August 4 2021

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Here’s where our market stands as we pass the midway point of 2021.

What happened in our Northern Virginia real estate market during the first half of 2021? Where do we stand now? As a real estate expert, I pay attention to four main factors when measuring the market:

1. What’s going on with the median sales price? The median sales price in Fairfax County has traditionally been much higher than Loudoun County, but right now they’re relatively close. The median sales price in Loudoun County is $630,000, while the median sales price in Fairfax County is $650,000. The median sales price in Loudoun County last year was $525,000, which means they’ve seen a 20% increase. The median sales price in Fairfax County last year was $590,000, which means they’ve undergone a 10% increase. I find it quite interesting that Loudoun County is catching up to Fairfax County.

"Moving forward, I predict we’ll see a bit of a market cooldown"

2. The list price versus the sales price. The average list-to-sale price ratio is 104% in Loudoun County and 102% in Fairfax County. We’ve approached 100% before, but I’ve never seen it this high. The reason why leads us to the third factor…

3. The months’ supply of homes on the market. In Loudoun County, we have 0.4 months of inventory. In Fairfax County, we have 0.8 months of inventory. What does this mean? For each house, we have two buyers, so having 0.4 months of inventory means we only have 50% of the houses we need. 0.8 months of inventory means we only have 80% of the houses we need. That’s why competition is hot and so many prices are being bid upward.

4. Homes’ average days on market. The average days on market for homes in Loudoun County is twice as high as the average for homes in Fairfax County, but when we’re talking eight days versus 16 days, what does it matter?

This all means we have an inventory shortage—that’s nothing crazy. However, it also means we’re seeing an increase in active listings. Moving forward, I predict we’ll see a bit of a market cooldown. This doesn't mean we’ll see price reductions; it just means there will be more inventory for buyers. The month’s supply of homes should go up, and perhaps list prices and sales prices will stabilize, which would be a good thing. 

If you’d like to know more about our Northern Virginia market or have any questions at all, don’t hesitate to reach out to me. I’d love to hear from you.

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Kim Barber

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